Tracking GDPNow Forecasts vs. Reality: What About that Initial 2nd Quarter Estimate?

MishTalk

On May 1, the GDPNow Model came up with an initial forecast of 4.3% for second quarter GDP.

My first reaction was “here we go again”. That was quickly followed by “I’ll take the under, way under” bet.

Let’s take a look at the latest forecast, why I think the model is wrong, and some interesting charts of GDPNow forecasts vs what actually happened.

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